Mike Paterson’s Daily Forex Brief

We’ve seen some USD buying in the past 24 hours as traders get ready to be let down gently by Fed Chairman Bernanke this afternoon (15.00 BST) in his keynote speech from Jackson Hole.

Earlier in the week markets were factoring in some sort of QE3 announcement given that QE2 was introduced at the 2010 gathering but expectations have diminished and the feeling now is that he’ll just reiterate the need to be ready and thus prepare the way for action at the September FOMC meeting.

EURUSD has dipped to 1.2493 just above the strong technical support lines around 1.2480 but has since bounced back a little traders are quick to take profits if the break through doesn’t happen. GBPUSD has also been sold off from the highs of 1.5876 down to 1.5777, ahead of its strong technical support around 1.5750 but it too has had a small bounce this morning and has just broken back up above 1.5800 as I type.

Aussie $ has continued to look a little sad of late and we’ve seen a further move in AUDUSD down to 1.0277 but there’s talk this morning of an ACB with a decent buying interest down there. GBPAUD is little changed at 1.5306.

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

EURGBP is stuck in its range still but don’t forget the usual end-of-month buying interest and we’re seeing a bit of that as I type, rising to 0.7935.

This morning brings Eurozone CPI and Unemployment data and might cause some impact, but there’s no prizes for guessing today’s star attraction this afternoon.

Talking of which our Paralympians have picked up their first medals on DAY 1 with swimmer Jonathan Fox and cyclist Sarah Storey collecting golds and world records along the way. So could we also see 3 points from the mighty Shrimpers tomorrow? We can at least hope!

Have a great week-end.

Interbank Rates at 08:52 BST

Currency Pair





EUR/USD 1.2520 1.2524 1.2493
GBP/USD 1.5797 1.5800 1.5777
EUR/GBP 0.7926 0.7931 0.7915
GBP/EUR 1.2611 1.2635 1.2607
GBP/CHF 1.5146 1.5173 1.5139
GBP/AUD 1.5306 1.5366 1.5300
EUR/CHF 1.2008 1.2012 1.2007
GBP/HKD 12.2474 12.2497 12.2319
EUR/HKD 9.7116 9.6950 9.6809
GBP/ZAR 13.3113 13.4332 13.3096
USD/JPY 78.49 78.67 78.38
GBP/CZK 31.2880 31.4610 31.2567

Today’s Data: BST

10.00-EU – Eurozone CPI / Eurozone Unemployment

14.45-US – Chicago PMI / Michigan Consumer Sentiment

15.00-US – Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.

To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com

The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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