• 32% intend to vote for UKIP, with Labour 7 points behind on 25%
In the final poll for the European Parliament elections, run exclusively for the Daily Mail by Opinium Research, Nigel Farage's party look set for success opening up a 7-point lead as Labour remain on 25%. The Lib Dems and Greens are tied for fourth place with 6% each.
• UKIP 32% (+2)
• Labour 25% (n/c)
• Conservative 21% (-2)
• Lib Dems 6% (-1)
• Greens 6% (n/c)
• BNP 1% (n/c)
If this becomes a reality today it represents gains of fifteen percentage points on the last elections in 2009 for UKIP (up from 17%) and nine points for Labour (up from 16%) while the Conservatives would have fallen by seven points (down from 28%). The Lib Dems would have fallen by eight points, losing more than half of their 2009 vote share of 14%.
Adam Drummond, Opinium Research comments:
"The European Parliament elections have always been a 'perfect storm' for UKIP with low turnout, the issue that animates their activists like no other and a proportional voting system that rewards smaller parties. But even then, for a party with no MPs to top the poll in a national election is unprecedented. Regardless of the consequences for the European Parliament, the key question on everyone's minds will be how many of those voters will stick with UKIP for the General Election in 2015 and how many will drift away. The precedent of 2010 is not good for Nigel Farage's party who went from 17% in 2009 to just 3% a year later."