Mike Paterson’s daily Forex brief
Dare I say that we’ve seen more of the same? Well, we have, and after a brief flutter with a more risk-on sentiment on Friday following talk that the IMF act as the vehicle of support for the EFSF we’ve seen the various global cracks re-appear and traders take a more cautious, risk-averse, approach.
EURUSD is back down to 1.3450 having seen some good Middle East sovereign selling, while GBPUSD is once again clinging to 1.5700 having made good ground back above 1.5800 on Friday. There have been plenty of sellers in this pair overnight as poor UK house price and retail price/volumes data give another reality check on the economy. This is turn has given traders further belief that we might some more QE from the BOE sooner rather than later.
Footfall through UK shops was the lowest since the blizzards last December and highlights the fact that last week’s Retail Sales increase was due in no small part to heavy discounting by retailers in a bid to prise some money out of people’s pockets.
UK house asking prices fell at their fastest monthly rate for almost four years, hit by mounting economic uncertainty, according to the latest Rightmove survey. UK house prices have proved fairly resilient of late, drifting sideways supported by record low lending rates, but the Rightmove survey suggests the latest bout of economic turmoil is taking its toll. House asking prices fell 3.1% on the month in the survey, which spanned much of October and early November, the sharpest such fall since December 2007.
Talk this morning of good name sellers in GBPUSD which has also lifted EURGBP to the key 0.8600 resistance level (GBPEUR support 1.1628) before falling back. Strong support remains around 1.5650 and 1.5600 but there are growing signs that these might eventually be broken.
Elsewhere though the Pound is hanging in there for the moment, as commodity currencies in particular also fall back after Friday’s rally, particularly the Aussie which also finds itself under pressure from a breakdown in the Quantas talks.
In the Eurozone new ECB President Draghi gave his inaugural speech and said that he believes the ECB should be the Eurozone’s lender of last resort but expressed his deep concerns over the slow pace of government reform, whilst over in Spain the opposition party have won the comfortable majority we were expecting. A change in government, as is currently the play, gave brief hope and a fillip to the Euro but this was once again short-lived.
Stock markets have fallen again, as has Gold, and while there’s little data today traders will be looking ahead to tomorrow’s latest US GDP figures as well as the usual stream of rhetoric.
And talking of continuing patterns, it was business as usual for the mighty Shrimpers (aka Southend United FC for the benefit of new readers) who earned yet another 3 points to keep them at the top of League 2. Oxygen please nurse!
Have a good week everyone.
Today's Data:
15.00-US- Existing Home Sales
Weekly Economic Calendar–HERE
Interbank Rates as of 08:42 BST
|
|
Current Price |
Overnight |
|
|
High |
Low |
||
|
EUR/USD |
1.3458 |
1.3539 |
1.3440 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5704 |
1.5810 |
1.5688 |
|
EUR/GBP |
0.8568 |
0.8594 |
0.8545 |
|
GBP/EUR |
1.1666 |
1.1700 |
1.1634 |
|
GBP/CHF |
1.4442 |
1.4513 |
1.4425 |
|
GBP/AUD |
1.5824 |
1.5856 |
1.5761 |
|
EUR/CHF |
1.2371 |
1.2417 |
1.2370 |
|
GBP/HKD |
12.1753 |
12.2575 |
12.1629 |
|
EUR/HKD |
10.4366 |
10.5354 |
10.3956 |
|
GBP/ZAR |
12.9566 |
13.0311 |
12.8681 |
|
USD/JPY |
76.80 |
77.02 |
76.75 |
|
GBP/CZK |
2.9781 |
2.9861 |
2.9615 |
Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.
