Donald Tusk by Platforma Obywatelska RP from Polska (CC-BY-SA-2.0)

Donald Tusk by Platforma Obywatelska RP from Polska (CC-BY-SA-2.0)

What's all this talk about it's either Theresa May's Deal, or no deal or No Brexit. Since when has no Brexit been respecting the will of the people?


Over the last couple of months or so, Theresa May and her team have slipped in the odd reference to it's either her deal, leaving with no deal or having no Brexit at all. And despite questioning her and others together with much speculation, no-one's managed to get to the bottom of it.

And now we have the president of the EU Council, Donald Tusk, using the exact same phraseology.

Talking to the G20 summit he said:

"A few days before the vote in the House of Commons, it is becoming more and more clear that this deal is the best possible – in fact, the only possible one."

And then, parroting Theresa May's previous comments, he went on to say:

"If this deal is rejected in the Commons, we are left with… an alternative: no deal or no Brexit at all. I want to reassure you that the EU is prepared for every scenario."

Except the scenario of renegotiation, of course, which it has ruled out.

Now, as far as I understand it and listening to all the pundits they seem to be on the same page with this, without a massive upheaval in the Commons, the Brexit express is now well-set on the rails to break through to freedom on the 29th March 2019, deal or no deal.

But – be in no doubt at all, Prime Ministers and their spokespeople, as well as EU Presidents do not make comments like this without good reason.

But to get to a 'no Brexit' position would take a huge amount of changes to primary UK legislation as well as, probably, the unanimous agreement of the whole EU27. All within four months. One day late with this and we're out by law, both UK and EU!

Just think about the horse-trading that would need to take place with the EU27 only agreeing as long as Gibraltar is firmly on the table and our fishing grounds to be ripped off of us – and that would be for starters while they stripped away our rebate and insisted on a time-frame for full EU army, Schengen and eurozone membership. That would all take far too long, be too confrontational, be impossible to sell to the UK public and in my view is politically unachievable.

And that's without the massive unrest it would almost certainly cause across the country and the government does not have the strength in depth of military aid to the civil power any more to deal with that possible eventuality.

There is not time now to hold anything other than an unconvincing off-the-cuff ill thought through referendum, which would be even more divisive than before and a general election would just shuffle the political deckchairs around on the deck of SS Remain – unless there was a massive sea-change in voting habits that either put a full blooded pro-EU party in power to keep us in, or put UKIP in power to take the UK out under a full mandate.

But we all know that the Remain based establishment, like the Terminator, will never give up. In fact, it will just use a full WTO Exit from the EU as an excuse to say "I'll be back"! Which is why we will always need a party like UKIP ready to apply the independence pressure.

So what would the Remain plan be?

Well they are already gearing up to fight any chance of a no-deal WTO Brexit, with Remain Labour MP Hilary Benn tabling an amendment to the government's Brexit deal bill due for voting on the 11th December to cover this eventuality. And this has, says the BBC, already garnered support from Conservative, Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru and Green politicians.

Now this would not be binding on the government even if it went through, but because it is not binding it could make it more attractive for MPs to give it a fair wind so as to send a big message to Theresa May.

And the Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn, has already said that "nobody is going to allow no-deal".

So some are anticipating that this would end up somehow with Parliament taking control of Brexit out of the government's hands. Not sure about that one myself. Who would parliament send to renegotiate?

Anyway think about it, May and her team of Remainers have hashed it all up enough, can you imagine those MPs agreeing anything but utter capitulation?

That would be the death knell for UK democracy.

No, I have always thought for some time now, that the only route the Remainers have open to them is to try and present a WTO exit as a trade version of 'Apocalypse Now' and that as May's deal is no good then we need to renegotiate which will include the need to extend the Article 50 process – that will of course give them more time to marshal their anti-Brexit forces and line up a new referendum or a general election.

Big business will leap on this and back it to the hilt and there would be warm encouraging words from bodies like the CBI and the IMF etc.

The EU could well be amenable as well, as it gives them more scope to asset strip the UK in the knowledge that our parliament must do a deal, however bad it is and cannot walk away.

But extending Article 50 would include some horse-trading of its own, although there have been rumours that the EU has already offered an extension of one month for a general election or six months for a new referendum.

But I think the Remainer MPs would like at least a one year extension. But that also carries risks as firstly it takes the UK into another EU budget period and also would require MEP elections in May next year, which would not go down well with the public – after all they did vote to leave the EU. The backlash would probably be massive UKIP wins.

This would take some real PR expertise to pull off and would, given the short timeframe available, require that the whole thing was already written, set up and agreed along with all the relevant legislation. All ready to go. All it would need is the nod.

Being a suspicious type, I think this would be part of the planning for all scenarios that Tusk referred to.

Interestingly, there is no time limit in Article 50 for extending the negotiating period. So it could just be 'temporary' or even maybe open ended with no fixed date until we come to a deal in the far and dim distant future.

And in the meantime the Establishment can set about 'educating' us and rectifying what they see as the mistake that the stupid electorate made in 2016.

So, please let us all know what you think by leaving a comment below.

Thank you for watching.


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