There is only one question that now needs to be answered and that is will Boris do Brexit?


Debbie may have done Dallas, but in 100 days time will we be saying that Boris does Brexit?

Boris Johnson may well have won the Tory leadership battle with a healthy majority and be on his way to Number Ten tomorrow, but as he said in his post victory speech, the work starts now.

But first I just want to point out the difference between the two latest leadership elections. The one that elected Boris today and the one that yesterday elected Jo Swinson to the leadership of the so called party of remain, the Lib dems.

I just want to take a little dig at the party of Remain.

As you can see from this table, Jo Swinson got 63% of the Lib Dem turnout vote and Boris Johnson got a little more at 66%.

Lib Dem and Tory leadership election Results

But when compared to the entire membership of their respective parties, not just the turnout, Jo Swinson got less than half at 45%, while Boris Johnson secured a proper majority amongst his membership base with 58%.

Now, in Remainer speak when talking about binary choice elections, doesn't that mean that Boris Johnson is a true leader with a proper mandate, while Jo Swinson isn't?

Just a thought.

But more seriously, this should also send a message to those Tory MPs toying with the idea of unseating Boris, that their political future might just end, there and then, if they did.

I also want to take a moment to observe that Jeremy Hunt was very quick to congratulate and applaud the victor.

Many Brexiteers are currently wallowing in the anguished wailing from the pro-EU luvvies railing against Boris.

But the pressure will now be on Boris Johnson to get a team together to deliver the promise of achieving Brexit by the cut off date of the 31st of October 2019.

And much of his intention will be signalled by who he appoints to his cabinet and whether he will be jetting off to visit various EU leaders, in which order and how soon.

He has already seen some of Theresa May's cabinet team walk away before he even gets his feet under the table, but that probably makes his selection job a little easier – i.e. he won't have to sack them!

Boris now has to get through Wednesday when he will be kissing royal hands and getting anointed and then Parliament is off on its summer hols on Thursday for over five weeks until it reconvenes on Tuesday the third of September.

Right now there are 100 days to go to Brexit. When MPs return there will only be 58 days left!

But I think that on both sides of the Leave – Remain battle, MPs will be beavering away in groups during those intervening 42 days to work out how to use those remaining 58 parliamentary days to either secure or stop Brexit.

The anti Brexit crowd will be looking at how they can take charge of the order paper again, if it's at all possible as well as seeing if there are outside opportunities like the judicial review destined for the Court of Sessions in Edinburgh that I told you about in this morning's video.

And of course the opportunities and timings of the inevitable Votes of no confidence that Boris Johnson will have to face probably in September.

The Boris Johnson team will be looking at ways of filling parliamentary time up with debates that cannot be used by Remainers as a vehicle to launch some sort of binding vote against Brexit. As well as trying to fend off that no confidence vote that will hang over them like a dark thundercloud that is just waiting to crash forth at any moment.

And Boris will task the team to ramp up the no-deal Brexit planning while trying to use it to exert pressure on Brussels to restructure some sort of deal that he can get through the house.

In any other time of national need one could rely on MPs to get behind the country. But we're talking about Brexit here, where most of them are working and cheering for the other side – they are working and cheering for the demise of the UK and the rise of their new country – the European Union.

If you thought the last three years were a rough ride, the final 58 days of the next 100 will be a doozie!


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