Image: 10 Downing Street (OGL)

So, Theresa May thinks that her (or should I say Olly Robbins') Chequers Plan is alive but just resting at the moment. Oh, and the BBC is at it again!

PLEASE SEE THE VIDEO BELOW

Talking to Andrew Marr on the BBC today the PM said in reply to Marr claiming that her plan was dead said no it isn't and went on to claim that Chequers delivers on the result of the referendum and will deliver a free trade area for the UK.

So Marr said to her – you say it's not dead, its resting.

I would say that resting without breathing, with no pulse and zero cranial activity is, well, dead.

How on earth can a deal that includes a 'common rule book', which would mostly, if not completely, be written in Brussels together with customs officers in the EU and UK collecting each others' tariff money and an Irish backstop that prevents the UK setting up proper free trade deals be anything other than a form of Remain?

Now, here I have to take that Andrew Marr character to task over the use of figures, which seem to originate from that government report leaked in January this year, that said for the 15 years after Brexit UK GDP growth would be negatively affected in three scenarios.

The report, at page 16 has a graph. That graph shows quite clearly that under ALL THREE SCENARIOS the UK is expected to see a growth in GDP.

Fair use of UK government material to show misrepresentation by UK broadcaster (BBC)

Fair use of UK government material to show misrepresentation by UK broadcaster (BBC)

What the model that the report used shows, is that we are expected to see 25% growth over the coming 15 years if nothing changed.

But the model says, if we stayed in the European Economic Area or EEA, which some call the Norway model, our GDP growth would be 1.6% lower than that 25% at 23.4%.

And if we went for a Canada style deal, growth would be 4.8% less than the 25% figure at 20.2%.

And finally if we went to a WTO Brexit, our GDP growth would be 7.7% less than the 25% figure at 17.3%.

Those three figures of -1.6%, -4.8% and -7.7% are intended to be taken off of the 25%, indicative 15 year Long-Term Growth figure.

But what Marr said was:

"…if for instance we did what you don't want to do, I do understand that, and did the so-called Norway model and stayed inside the EEA, our domestic product would fall by 1.6%, nearly two percent over 15 years. That is a really bad drop.

"If we went for the Canada deal, that kind of free trade deal, it would fall by nearly five percent, really serious.

"But look what happens if we go out with no deal, it falls by 8%, nearly 8%. 7.7%, that's pretty catastrophic…." he said wagging his finger.

So he's presented it as applying those figures directly to our GDP figure of today!

Now if that's not blatant misrepresentation of the situation and scaremongering then I don't know what is. How many viewers will have taken those figures at face value and trusted them? This merits a massive retraction by our national broadcaster!

UKIP's policy of privatising the BBC looks to be a more sound one as every day passes!?

And Theresa May just sat there dumbly and said nothing! Has she no grasp of this at all? They are her own government figures after all!

Anyway, back to Chequers. As the former Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, said in The Times today the Chequers proposal, in terms of a proper Full Withdrawal of the UK from the EU, is both entirely deranged and preposterous.

But Chequers makes a lot of sense if you're just looking for a temporary siding to park Brexit in, until you can get the points re-set on the tracks to full EU membership re-entry, with the euro, Schengen, EU army and all! Especially if you can keep the UK firmly tied to as many EU authorities as you can in the meantime, like the military Permanent Structured Co-operation and the European Arrest Warrant etc.

And, as that other cabinet resignee and former Brexit Secretary David Davis said when talking to Sophy Ridge today, much of the UK failure to grasp a true Brexit so far is driven by the overwhelmingly Remain minded UK politicians, civil service and government advisers.

"….it's the whole system, it's stacked in a certain way." He said.

The one thing that David Davis is not phased about though is the time-frame. Some say that, with only six months to go there is no time to do a deal, so we must extend article 50 or reverse Brexit or do anything but leave the EU – these of course are the voices of the Remainers.

But David Davis told Sophy Ridge that he has always said that it would all happen in the last month. So with six months to go, as far as he is concerned, there is plenty of time to get a whole new proposal through, if we were minded to. I think it 80-90% likely there will be a deal, he said, which will end up resembling Boris Johnson's new super-Canada or free-trade plus he continued.

But he did warn us that between now and sometime in November there will be all sorts of scary stuff being talked about, with bluff and counter bluff and brinkmanship going on all round. But as he said, this is the EU's normal strategy of using time to try and get you to a cliff edge of some sort, in the hope you will back away. And that's what we've got to be ready for, he said.

At the end of the day, according to David Davis, Chequers will die, either in Brussels or in Westminster and then we'll need a whole new proposal – the one he wrote over a year ago he said.

When pressed on the Irish border question he said that, in problem terms, it was not an inconvenient truth about Brexit, it was an inconvenient exaggeration, but he did stress that it was an important issue but a solvable issue.

Anyway, the Tory party conference is in full swing and it could get interesting as Boris is set to make a speech the day before Theresa May makes her keynote effort. Fireworks maybe?

So, please let us all know what you think by leaving a comment below.

Thank you for watching.

Sources:

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/Exiting-the-European-Union/17-19/Cross-Whitehall-briefing/EU-Exit-Analysis-Cross-Whitehall-Briefing.pdf

https://metro.co.uk/2018/09/30/boris-johnson-declares-war-with-theresa-may-over-brexit-7991311/

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