Never leave out the bookies odds when asking whether Labour will 'Old On' to its seat in the by-election

75 per cent of the bets so far placed with William Hill have been for a surprise UKIP victory in the Oldham West & Royton by-election – but 59% of the stake money wagered has been for a win for favourites, Labour.

When betting began on the outcome, Labour were installed as 1/12 favourites, with UKIP at 6/1. By this weekend, Labour had lengthened to 4/11, with UKIP shortening to 2/1, but in the last forty eight hours Labour have again shortened and are currently 2/9 (stake £9 for £2 profit) favourites, with UKIP quoted at 3/1; Conservatives 100/1 and both Greens and Lib Dems 200/1.

'It is the case that we have taken significantly more individual bets for a UKIP win than for any other Party, but also that the majority of the actual stake money gambled has been for a Labour win' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

There has, though, also been a gamble that Labour will fail to poll 50% or more of the vote. They are 2/9 with William Hill to receive UNDER 50%, and 3/1 50% or more.

John Bickley UKIP

John Bickley – UKIP candidate for Oldham West and Royton

OLDHAM WEST & ROYTON BY ELECTION:

2/9 Labour;

3/1 UKIP;

100/1 Conservatives;

200/1 Greens;

200/1 Lib Dems

BETS PLACED ON BY ELECTION:

73% UKIP;

24% Labour;

3% others

STAKE MONEY PLACED ON BY ELECTION:

60% Labour;

39% UKIP;

1% others

LAB TO POLL UNDER 50% OF VOTES…2/9…..50% OR MORE- 3/1

WHEN WILL CORBYN CEASE TO BE LAB LEADER?

2015- 5/1;

2016- 5/4;

2017- 5/1;

2018- 10/1;

2019- 12/1;

2020 – 7/1;

2021/Later-6/1

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