Theresa May 2 By Casa Rosada (Argentina Presidency of the Nation) (CC-BY-2.5 AR)

By Casa Rosada (Argentina Presidency of the Nation) (CC-BY-2.5 AR)

And Theresa May is still intent on trying to get her failed Withdrawal Agreement surrender treaty through parliament. When will it dawn on her that it's all over?

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Many of us will have seen the BBC documentary 'Brexit: Behind Closed Doors' and the revealing insight it gives into the attitude of Eurocrats towards the UK and its representatives. And it's not pleasant watching to the point that I'm sure it has switched a fair proportion of Remainers, into Brexiteers.

Many will also have seen BBC Question Time last night and the Nigel Farage broadside delivered into the side of the failing EU and domestic Remain establishments, to the delight of the watching audience.

So it may come as a surprise to learn that Theresa May is still intent on trying to push her non-Brexit, Withdrawal Agreement surrender treaty through to ratification with the EU.

Now, as I've said before, to get her treaty ratified, the PM first has to get the Withdrawal Agreement voted through the House of Commons together with the political declaration that forms the basis of negotiations with the EU on our future relationship with them.

Then she has to push the Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill through parliament to Royal Assent to make the so-called 'deal' effective in UK law and then, and only then, can she go on to Brussels to ratify the treaty with the EU.

And at the moment, we have the Withdrawal Agreement having been shot down in flames by MPs three times and virtually no progress being made on agreeing the political declaration between the Tories and Labour party.

But, in the face of much disquiet over the confused customs union approach that Labour and Conservative negotiators appear to be pursuing, the government is still talking about pressing ahead.

Talking about the PM's Brexit proposals, the Justice Secretary, David Gauke, said:

"I think we want to bring it back as quickly as we can but we want to bring it back to succeed."

And the BBC reports that a spokesman for Number Ten:

"….said it is the government's 'hope and expectation' to bring the withdrawal agreement bill in ahead of European elections."

I think I can almost guarantee that, despite all the arm-twisting and offers of gongs, knighthoods and peerages from the whips, Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement Bill will be voted down.

That would force her to either drop it, or end this parliamentary session and start a new one to keep it alive, with the prospect of having the new parliamentary session Queen's speech voted down as well, putting her whole tenure at risk!

All in all, Theresa'a tenacity, verges on insanity.

Now, despite all the Remainer inspired uncertainty surrounding the UK, the Office for National Statistics reports a 0.5% increase in our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2019.

And when comparing Q1 2019 with Q1 2018, there has been a 1.8% increase.

But, I must also point out that our trade balance worsened as the trade deficit widened by £8.9 billion to £18.3 billion in the first quarter of the year.

But, before the Remainers gleefully jump in heralding all sorts of doom and gloom, I'd just like to point out that, according to the ONS:

"Increased imports from EU countries were due largely to imports of chemicals, and machinery and transport equipment."

And:

"Chemical imports from the EU increased £1.9 billion, which was due largely to increased imports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products, which increased £1.5 billion in the three months to March 2019."

Now, why would that be – ah! of course. Stockpiling in the face of Brexit Project Fear scare-mongering!

Over the last few months importers have been filling up all the warehousing facilities across the land with imported goods.

But of course once the warehouses are full, stockpiling will stop and import numbers should return to normal as older stock in the warehouses is used up and replaced with newer stock.

And when firms are once again more confident in their supply chains, then those stocks will be wound down and it will look for a short while like the trade balance is very rosy.

So those trade balance figures may not be as bad as they look at first glance.

Sources:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/eu-brexit-chiefs-brand-theresa-15013822

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/section/13/enacted

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2019

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